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Early concepts of probability

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  • For teachers and practitioners
  • Espresso
  • Early concepts of probability
  • Espresso
  • 50: Covariational reasoning
  • 49: Teaching and learning equivalence
  • 48: Early development of functional thinking
  • 47: Developing concepts of pattern
  • 46: Building and breaking 2D and 3D shapes
  • 45: Teaching logical reasoning
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28 June 2021

An infographic displaying Common forms of bias when people think about probability: Availability bias, Representativeness bias and Equiprobability bias.

What does research suggest about teaching and learning early concepts of probability?

  • It is important for students to learn using both theoretical and empirical aspects of probability, reasoning about short- and long-term behaviour
  • Probabilistic reasoning depends on proportional reasoning, especially the flexible use of fractions and estimation
  • Development of the important concept known as the law of large numbers is important; for example, students making and analysing short-, medium- and long-term predictions about probability situations
  • Helping students get a sense of randomness in a variety of different task types, including categorising and creating random sequences, is suggested
  • Tasks which focus on the concept of equalising or equivalence are also recommended as useful, as is the use of carefully designed technology tools
  • It is useful for teachers to be aware of common biases, ambiguities in language and misconceptions around probability
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